I just found this from the Digital Entertainment Group.

It's useful because it gives us a look at how things stand today (well, actually how they stood in the thrid quarter ot 2011).

Basically, the blue and red tones are physical discs.

I see that the actual PURCHASE of discs remains the overwhelming source of home video entertainment spending. Nothing else really come close. 44% of revenue from disc sales and 35% from disc rentals.

I anticipated that this weeks report might show another decline as BD settled into a "normal" range in the 20's after a months of unusually high market share.

I'm pleased to say I guessed wrong. In fact, Blu-ray returned with it's second highest market share ever...beaten only by the 40% shown in my last post.

And it was 120% higher than the same week last year. Also, as in my previous post, although DVD sales declined, the increase in Blu-ray sales was so strong that it more than offset the DVD decline and so disc based media actually recorded another strong week of growth: 9.47% over the same perioc last year.

33.5 million U.S. household now have Blu-ray capable playback devices. That's a 52% increase over this time last year.

I wonder now if, perhaps, we really are reaching that tipping point where BD replaces DVD as the dominant physical media.

EDITED TO ADD THE FOLLOWING NEW INFO:

"Earlier today, the Digital Entertainment Group, a Los Angeles-based, industry funded nonprofit corporation that advocates and promotes the many consumer benefits associated with various entertainment products, including both physical and digital media on a variety of platforms, reported a 5% increase in home entertainment spending in Q3. The increase, which is the first since the first quarter of 2008 when the economic downturn began, is driven by a surge in Blu-ray sales. "

Blu-ray has a long history of hitting sales plateaus and then getting stuck there for several months at a time.

I remember when BD sales seemed to be about 8% every week for darn near a year. It was big news when BD finally put together a couple weeks over 10%. Then it climbed up to 20% and moved in that range for about a year. About a month ago, BD broke the 30% barrier for the first time (probably the week of Star Wars). It was impressive but I also figured it was likely a fluke that wouldn't be repeated for some time. Much to my shock, BD subsequently racked up a couple more weeks in the 30%+ share. I know we've had some strong releases but I didn't expect that kind of sustained market share. I again waited for the new numbers, expecting BD to settle back into the 20's.

But here are the latest numbers:

Blu-ray sets a new market share record. This is the first time BD has reached 40% of disc sales. It was a good week for discs in general. The chart shows DVD continues to decline but BD revenue more than covered the DVD losses. I didn't just fall off the turnip truck and I don't expect great results like this every week but you must acknowledge high performance when you see it.

It is now possible to at least speculate about the day that many people thought would never come: the day Blu-ray outsells DVD. We aren't there yet. Maybe we won't be there for two years. But the idea is no longer impossible. There has been speculation (pending the final crunching of numbers) that Blu-ray may have just outsold DVD in the "Top 20 New Release" category.

The next morning, I had no internet...which I assumed meant the upgrade hadn't finished. After a few hours, I figured something was wrong so I phoned there tech support. I got a recorded message saying that some users of D-link routers have lost internet service and the "fix" was to disconnect the wireless router and hard wire directly into the computer. The recorded message then stated that this was an issue for D-link tech support and users who lost internet service should contact them.

Well, I never did get an official fix from D-link and the unofficial fix I found on the internet was too complicated and seemed to risky. So I haven't had wireless in the house since the start of the year. It's an inconvenience as I can no longer use my laptop in the living room to connect to the the internet.

Now, while that may not seem DIRECTLY related to digital movie delivery as opposed to physical discs, it does point out one more small issue. It just shows one more technical complication that can arise. Of course, the arguement can be made that anybody with some tech sense could fix the problem but, on behalf of the great unwashed, I'd rather not have to worry about it.

My next door neighbour, a friend of mine since our grade school days in the 1960's, was showing me his system which has all of his movies stored on a hard drive and delivered wirelessly to his TV. Fortunately, he doesn't have the same D-link router that I had. If I had his system, I'd be in a pickle.

Now, again, I'm not saying that this is an issue which disqualifies digital delivery. It is, by my term, a "complication". It's one more thing in the chain that can go wrong if you have a similar setup.

In a few minutes, I'm going to watch my new Blu-ray of THE EDGE. I'll hit a button to turn on my receiver and another button to turn on my BD player. Drop the BD in the tray and in a few seconds I'll have the movie on the screen in 1080p high defintion with 5.1 lossless DTS-HD Master Audio.

Simple system for a simple guy .

It's still an evolving concept.

Yep, I looked up Ultraviolet, and it is a cloud copy.  Not the ultraviolet discs I was talking about earlier though.  Just a name.  Sound like Apple's iCloud thing, where the media you buy from them is stored on there hardware, and you can download when you want.  I don't think Ultraviolet actually uploads every single copy into a cloud (wouldn't be very efficient), probably just ID tags.

Course we'll see how these will pan out.  While I can see having instant access can be an asset; gotta wonder if this caters to people too lazy to spend 3 minutes to put a film onto their device.

Talk to me in 2020 and tell me how crazy I was.

Don't think you're crazy at all (well, about this at least ).  Most likely 2020 will be some combo of what you and I said.  As Dex said, a lot will also depend on evolving business models.  Predict those and you'll be a millionaire.  The problem is that business people can act in very odd ways sometimes, especially Hollywood.

Things move pretty fast, twenty years ago most of you guys thought it was ok to wear tight dolphin shorts and a pink tank top with zink oxide on your nose.

And I still do! 

Fact the theaters in my area are dying. There’s one video store left within a reasonable driving range. I don’t live in the boondocks I live in southern Orange County CA (Irvine area). Boarders is gone and best buy is hanging by a thread. Wall mart’s full dvd’s in bins as if they were rubbish. I just bought Pontypool (a new and popular movie) for a dollar and ninety nine cents.

I think direct Dvd/blu disc type media sales through Amazon etc… will hold up for a while and start dying out by the end of the decade. Then when the new generation that never new anything other than buying digital will be the majority consumer. The 12-17 year olds that right now turn to itunes for there: movies, tv shows, books, and games. I also think we are going to see more entrainment dollars turning to block buster budget video games and possibly motion picture/game hybrids.

I have not bought a music CD in three years. Bought lots of music though. and I am 33 years old

Talk to me in 2020 and tell me how crazy I was.

I think we’ll get to the place in my life time where data storage and retrieval will seem limitless and instantaneous to the average Joe. I think it will be like in the movies were you have some sort of interface (maybe holographic). but no more CP’s or blu-ray players

My problem with that theory is that it's a technological analysis of what is really a commercial issue.

People who foresee the end of physical media think in terms of technology. They see it as storage and retrieval.

But movies are "Show BUSINESS". Movies are commercial properties that are used to generate a variety of revenue streams. Theaters still exist and studios, film makers and theater owners want to put ticket-buying bodies in the seats. The last numbers I saw for BD and DVD sales were about $170 million for that week (mid September). That's a revenue stream for film makers, studios and retailers.

While I have no doubt that studios want to tap into the opportunites afforded by digital delivery, I also have seen no real evidence that they want to shut down the traditional revenue streams.  Show business is about selling movies. If the studios can sell you a theater ticket, they will. If they can sell you a download, they will. If they can sell you a disc, they will.

I think the business part of the equation tends to be lost when we get too starry-eyed about the technology.

swollenguy wrote:

Anyone bring up cloud technology. Also it seems that at some point there will no longer be need for back up on anything.

Don't jump the fence yet- it will start costing a few duckets soon enough.  And I'll never trust anyone else to backup my stuff, or even be able to look at all of my research papers.  "Oops, server died, sorry, your stuff is gone."  Or you can pay double for them to back it up, as long as it is remote located and that doesn't screw up.  If hackers can hit the DoD, they can hit Apple or Google.

Cloud computing is a twist on the old "network computer" theme.  Has pluses, has minuses- I don't like minuses.

Am I paranoid? Yup.

Sure but just looking at the natural pace of things. if I had told you back in the 3.5 floppy days about how much a flash drive could hold, you would say BS. I think we’ll get to the place in my life time where data storage and retrieval will seem limitless and instantaneous to the average Joe. I think it will be like in the movies were you have some sort of interface (maybe holographic). but no more CP’s or blu-ray players or house phones.
Also they have already wired paraplegics allowing them to use their brain to move a mouse curser and made remote control mice (the furry kind). So our ideas of how we interact with media might change drastically as well in twenty years. Things move pretty fast, twenty years ago most of you guys thought it was ok to wear tight dolphin shorts and a pink tank top with zink oxide on your nose.